Metric tracking

# Metric tracking

## Goal

Define the commercial measurements that can change a decision: what is counted, from where, over what window, and what number would cause the company to keep, kill, or change a motion.

Metrics are derived claims. They are not a dashboard aesthetic and not a list of every acronym a board deck might want.

This is measurement design. Do not invent CAC, LTV, win rate, churn, or velocity. Do not connect production analytics.

Complete the analysis autonomously. Do not stop to ask clarifying questions. When a metric cannot be computed, leave it `UNKNOWN` and say what instrument is missing.

Do not modify application code.

## Prerequisites

Read the latest ICP, market, pricing, campaign, channel, pipeline, deals, onboarding, retention, and stack files; billing, usage, CRM, and support extracts in the repository; and any existing `docs/gtm/metrics.md`, `docs/gtm/metrics.yaml`, and `docs/gtm/metrics-changelog.md`.

If definitions in those files conflict (what is activated, what is a deal, what is retained), document the conflict. Do not silently pick a flattering definition.

## Evidence standard

Use the shared GTM labels.

A metric is only as good as its denominator. Do not mix inquiries with qualified opportunities, or founder hours with vendor invoices, or logo churn with revenue churn.

Separate observed values, derived values, targets, and aspirations. Targets without an observation method are wishes.

## Step 1: Choose the few metrics that govern

Default scorecard, include only those the motion can observe or instrument next:

* qualified pipeline created
* win rate on qualified opportunities
* cycle time from qualified to close
* activation rate and time-to-value
* retention at the product cadence
* expansion versus contraction
* fully loaded CAC
* LTV or an honest unknown
* cost to serve
* pipeline velocity only if the inputs are defined

Reject vanity: unattributed traffic, email open rates as primary, follower counts, “influenced pipeline” without a rule.

For each kept metric write:

* name
* plain-language definition
* formula
* numerator source
* denominator source
* window and cadence
* owner
* decision it changes
* current value or `null`
* evidence label
* known biases

## Step 2: Define CAC and LTV without theater

CAC is fully loaded cost to acquire an activated customer, including founder selling time, tools, spend, and services given away to close.

If activation is required in the definition, do not compute CAC on closed-won-but-never-started logos.

LTV uses the retention prompt’s cadence and includes cost to serve. If retention is `UNKNOWN`, LTV is `UNKNOWN`. Do not substitute a SaaS-average multiple.

A single ratio of invented LTV to invented CAC is forbidden.

## Step 3: Win rate, churn, and velocity

Win rate: qualified opportunities only, with a dated cohort. Inbound and outbound reported separately if both exist.

Churn: logo and revenue, plus reason codes. Event-driven dormancy is not automatically churn.

Velocity: use a stated formula and refuse it if stages are theater or history is empty.

## Step 4: Instrumentation plan

For every `UNKNOWN` metric the company actually needs, specify the smallest instrument: a field, an export, a weekly count. Date it. If nobody will do the work, drop the metric from the scorecard.

## Step 5: Review cadence and tripwires

Weekly: activity versus capacity, stalls, onboarding load.

Monthly or at natural cadence: win rate, activation, retention, cost.

Tripwires: what number pauses outbound, pauses selling because onboarding is full, or forces `REVISIT ICP`.

## Step 6: Desk-test

1. Every metric has a denominator and a source.
2. No primary metric is vanity.
3. CAC and LTV include labor or are unknown.
4. Definitions match pipeline, onboarding, and retention files.
5. Empty history produces `null`, not a fake baseline.

## Decision

* `INSTALL`: the scorecard may be kept
* `INSTALL NARROWLY`: only currently observable metrics
* `HOLD`
* `REVISIT DEFINITIONS` if upstream GTM files disagree

Lead with:

“As of [date], the governing scorecard is [metric list], with [N] currently observable and [N] unknown; CAC is [value or unknown], LTV is [value or unknown]; decision [INSTALL / INSTALL NARROWLY / HOLD / REVISIT DEFINITIONS].”

## Deliverables

### 1. `docs/gtm/metrics.md`

Scorecard, formulas, current values or nulls, instrumentation plan, tripwires, desk tests.

### 2. `docs/gtm/metrics.yaml`

`version`, `status`, `decision`, `metrics`, `cac`, `ltv`, `win_rate`, `churn`, `velocity`, `tripwires`, `instrumentation`, `assumptions`, `unknowns`, `sources`.

Unknown values are `null` with an explanation.

### 3. `docs/gtm/metrics-changelog.md`

Append only. Never rewrite past numbers in place; add a new observation.

## Boundaries

* Do not invent KPIs or industry-average fill-ins.
* Do not use LTV/CAC as a slogan.
* Do not treat uninstrumented targets as management.
* Do not mix incompatible cohorts or windows.
* Do not hide founder labor.
* Preserve uncertainty.

## Done when

* Each governing metric has a formula, source, and decision use.
* Unknowns are null, not estimated from vibes.
* Desk tests passed or forced `HOLD`.
* The three files agree with upstream definitions.